We think Anthropic is a fantastic business. This is not a case for or against the company. We are looking at how similar recent IPOs traded in their first year. You can like a business without wanting to buy its shares at any price.
As at 12 November 2026. Prices to 11 November. The table covers 19 companies. Daily charts are available for ten. Prices do not update live.
The short version
Anthropic plans to sell 825 million shares at US$70–78. Pricing is reportedly set for 18 November, with trading starting the next day. There will be plenty of attention on the opening price. We are more interested in what follows.
Across 19 recent venture-backed US IPOs, the middle result was a 21% gain on day one. A year later, 12 of the 17 stocks with a full year of trading were below their offer price. That middle result is the median, so a few big winners cannot pull it up the way they pull up an average.
Most opened well. Most were below their offer price a year later. That is what happened in this sample, not a prediction for ANT.
The deal
The offer would value Anthropic’s shares at roughly US$916 billion to US$1.02 trillion. Count the extra shares that could come from options and other securities, and that rises to about US$1.4 trillion. That is the “fully diluted” value you will see in the coverage.
| Term | Detail |
|---|---|
| Shares offered | 825 million Class A: 801.4 million new, 23.6 million from existing holders |
| Price range | US$70 to US$78 |
| Timetable | Pricing 18 Nov 2026, first trade 19 Nov 2026 (reported) |
| Shares outstanding after the IPO | About 13.09 billion |
| Retail allocation | About 20% of the offer (reported), well above the norm |
| Strategic placement | US$26 billion of non-voting stock at the IPO price, seven buyers including Google and Nvidia (Fortune) |
| Last private mark | Series H at US$965 billion post-money, May 2026 |
| Lead banks | Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley |
A lock-up is a period when existing shareholders are restricted from selling. Anthropic’s shares become available in stages rather than on one big release date. Some insiders can sell up to 10% of their locked holdings early on; another 35% becomes available after full-year results. Founders have a separate release linked to day 180 or first-quarter results. These percentages apply to eligible holders’ shares, not the whole company. Final prospectus terms govern.
About 6% of the company is being offered, with roughly a fifth of the offer reportedly going to retail investors. If buyers rush in, that limited supply could push the price up quickly. More shares can become available later.
What happened after 19 recent IPOs?
The sample covers selected US listings from March 2025 to June 2026. Sixteen of 19 finished day one above their offer price. By six months, only five of the 17 with observations were still above it.
The median stock peaked 66% above its IPO price. By month one, the research puts the median closing gain at just 13%. These are different measures: the peak is the highest price traded during a session, not a closing price or a return everyone could have earned.
Between months three and six, the median fell below the offer price. This is also when early results arrive and many insiders become free to sell. The timing is worth watching, but it does not prove insider selling caused the falls.
Nor was a lock-up release an automatic sell signal. Across 14 release dates reviewed in the source draft, seven stocks rose and seven fell. Company news and the wider market still matter.
Circle, CoreWeave and Hinge Health were well above their offer prices on 11 November. Some IPOs do very well. The first-day jump just was not a reliable guide to which ones.
Why ANT could be different
Size. Only SpaceX is close, so most of these companies are imperfect comparisons. SpaceX jumped early, fell below its US$135 offer price within about five weeks, then recovered. It was roughly 4% above the offer price on 11 November.
Early demand. The small float, meaning the shares available to trade, and large retail allocation could produce a sharp opening rise. Anyone buying after that rise pays more than investors who received shares in the offer.
Insider sales. Anthropic spreads its releases across several dates. That may help the market absorb the shares, but it does not remove the potential selling.
Big backers. Seven companies, including Google and Nvidia, have agreed to buy US$26 billion of stock at the IPO price in a separate placement. Their interest is encouraging, but it does not guarantee the price will hold. CNBC reports these shares are not covered by the underwriters’ lock-up agreements.
Three paths to watch
We are watching for three possible outcomes. None is a forecast.
| Path | What it looks like | What to watch |
|---|---|---|
| Pop, then fade | A strong opening, followed by a return towards the offer price. | The first-day gain disappearing over the following weeks. |
| The price holds | There are enough buyers as more shareholders become free to sell. | Price falls attracting buyers, with no lasting drop after release dates. |
| The price falls | Company expectations or the wider AI market weaken as more shares become available. | Trading below the offer price alongside heavy selling and weaker news. |
Watch the first trade, the first results, the share release after those results, and day 180. Dates tied to results can change. And being allowed to sell does not mean a shareholder will sell.
The business is not the share price
We like the business. Its growth helps explain the interest: CNBC’s coverage of the amended filing reports US$33.24 billion of revenue in the nine months to September. The listing would also give investors direct access to a leading AI lab.
At a value approaching US$1.4 trillion including potential extra shares, investors are paying for a lot of future growth. Anthropic also has large computing bills and funding needs.
The reported nine-month net loss was US$104 billion. CNBC attributes most of it to accounting changes in the value of convertible notes and related liabilities. It does not mean Anthropic spent US$104 billion in cash running the business.
You can be positive about Anthropic and cautious about the price. This article looks at the trading history, not whether the business deserves your backing.
The full sample
| Company | Ticker | IPO | IPO price | Day-1 close | Peak | 12 months | 11 Nov 2026 | Peak to now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | SPCX | Jun 2026 | $135 | +19% | +67% | not yet | +4% | -38% |
| Cerebras | CBRS | May 2026 | $185 | +68% | +109% | not yet | -45% | -74% |
| Bullish | BLSH | Aug 2025 | $37 | +84% | +219% | -34% | -36% | -80% |
| Firefly Aerospace | FLY | Aug 2025 | $45 | +34% | +64% | -43% | -41% | -64% |
| Netskope | NTSK | Sep 2025 | $19 | +18% | +47% | -3% | +18% | -20% |
| Klarna | KLAR | Sep 2025 | $40 | +15% | +43% | -65% | -66% | -76% |
| StubHub | STUB | Sep 2025 | $23.50 | -6% | +19% | -75% | -76% | -80% |
| Figure | FIGR | Sep 2025 | $25 | +24% | +212% | +43% | -3% | -69% |
| Gemini | GEMI | Sep 2025 | $28 | +14% | +64% | -84% | -90% | -94% |
| Via | VIA | Sep 2025 | $46 | +8% | +22% | -43% | -7% | -24% |
| Navan | NAVN | Oct 2025 | $25 | -20% | +24% | +2% | +6% | -15% |
| Figma | FIG | Jul 2025 | $33 | +250% | +333% | -24% | -43% | -87% |
| Chime | CHYM | Jun 2025 | $27 | +37% | +66% | -35% | +23% | -26% |
| Circle | CRCL | Jun 2025 | $31 | +168% | +864% | +166% | +117% | -78% |
| Omada Health | OMDA | Jun 2025 | $19 | +21% | +49% | -4% | -20% | -46% |
| Hinge Health | HNGE | May 2025 | $32 | +17% | +295% | +66% | +280% | -4% |
| MNTN | MNTN | May 2025 | $16 | +65% | +103% | -46% | -69% | -85% |
| eToro | ETOR | May 2025 | $52 | +29% | +54% | -22% | -56% | -71% |
| CoreWeave | CRWV | Mar 2025 | $40 | 0% | +368% | +94% | +52% | -68% |
| Average | +44% | +159% | -6% | -3% | -58% | |||
| Median | +21% | +66% | -24% | -20% | -69% |
The typical stock was 20% below its IPO price at the snapshot date and 69% below its highest traded price. Big winners lift the average, which is why the median is more useful here. A fall from the peak is not the same as a loss from the IPO price.
There are limits to this comparison. The first ten companies leaned towards well-known listings; nine more were added. All came from one market cycle. Most are far smaller than Anthropic, and cancelled listings are not included. These results do not tell us the odds of ANT rising or falling.
The table has rounded returns for 19 companies. Daily charts are available for ten, using the supplied Yahoo Finance histories to 11 November 2026. We have not independently downloaded those histories again. Six- and twelve-month results only include stocks that have traded long enough. A missing result is not a zero return.
The explorer counts months in trading days: 21, 63, 126 and 252 for one, three, six and twelve months. Peaks use intraday highs; other milestones use closes. Source adjustments include Klarna’s missing first day and removal of an eToro pre-listing placeholder. Lock-up dates are indicative.
We like Anthropic. That does not make the IPO price a sure thing. The results, the price you pay and demand for shares as insiders become free to sell will matter long after the first day.
Disclosures
General information only. This article does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Consider your circumstances and seek licensed financial advice where appropriate. Past performance and other companies’ IPO patterns do not predict ANT’s returns. Scenarios are illustrative, not forecasts.
Relationships. Cashu Research has no association or commercial relationship with any of the companies discussed in this article.
AI assistance. Prepared with AI assistance, including Claude, which is made by Anthropic. Analysis may contain errors. The cover is an AI-generated conceptual image, not a photograph of an Anthropic facility or its listing.
Cashu Technologies Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative (No. 001318029) of Adviser Solutions Group Pty Ltd (AFSL 485946).
Sources
- CNBC: Anthropic sets IPO price range of $70 to $78
- Yahoo Finance: Anthropic sets IPO price range
- Fortune: Anthropic IPO range and strategic placement
- Leverage Shares: Anthropic lock-up schedule
- Finimize: 10b5-1 plans
- Tech Insider: April 2026 tender offer
- YourStory: S-1 revenue and losses
- INDmoney: RSU expense and offer terms
- Sovereign Magazine: Microsoft compute commitment
- Business Insider Japan: 2025 revenue and lock-up
- Price data: Yahoo Finance daily closes and highs, pulled 12 Nov 2026
- Anthropic: proposed offering and roadshow launch
- SEC: amended S-1, 10 November 2026