Copper printed record highs in the first week of August while the pool of permitted, resource-defined, near-FID developers has been visibly emptied by two years of takeovers. The scarce asset isn't the metal — it's a permitted project with a resource attached. So we are screening the survivors, not the metal.
Setting the Scene: Three Shocks at Once
COMEX copper hit an intraday record US$6.77/lb on 7 August, with LME three-month touching US$14,258/t the same day, closing on the January all-time high of US$14,527.50/t. Three things did it at once:
- US tariff-driven hoarding ahead of the pending refined-copper decision — importers pulling metal into the US before a ruling lands.
- The DRC's 29 June ban on copper and cobalt concentrate exports, taking a major concentrate supply channel offline.
- Codelco suspending Andes Norte at El Teniente on seismic grounds — a pause a union leader puts at up to two years, at a mine already running roughly 27% below last year through the first five months.
LME copper, three-month price
US$/t, monthly, January 2024 to 7 August 2026. January's all-time high of US$14,527.50/t and August's US$14,258/t print marked.
Supply and Demand: The Deficit Is Back
The demand side hasn't blinked — grid build-out, data centres and electrification keep pulling refined metal, and Chinese fabricator utilisation has stayed firm through the price spike. It's the supply side doing the damage: the DRC export ban, El Teniente's two-year setback, and a project pipeline that simply hasn't replaced what the last cycle consumed. After two roughly balanced years, the refined market has swung back into deficit — and consensus has 2026 and 2027 deepening it.
Refined copper market balance
Annual surplus/deficit in kt, 2021 to 2027E. 2026–27 estimates reflect the DRC concentrate ban and El Teniente disruption.
Now the part the price screen doesn't show you. Foran was taken out by Eldorado. Filo went to BHP and Lundin. SolGold went to Jiangxi. MAC Copper went to Harmony. Rex, Xanadu and others followed. Glencore is reportedly seeking an October ASX secondary listing explicitly to fund copper growth off Australia's A$4.4tn super pool. Majors have money and no shelf. That is the trade.
The Screen
Pre-production copper developers, defined JORC/NI 43-101 resource, Americas or Australia jurisdiction, FID or a study inflection inside roughly 18 months. Comparable by stage, not by ticker.
Marimaca Copper — The One Closest to a DecisionTSX: MARIASX: MC2
Marimaca is the most de-risked name on this list and priced accordingly at roughly C$1.08bn. The Marimaca Oxide Deposit has its RCA environmental approval (November 2025), critical sectorial permits lodged with SERNAGEOMIN in April, and a 110kV grid connection authorisation granted 13 May. Endeavour Financial launched the debt process in May against a US$587m pre-production capex, with a final funding strategy targeted for Q4 2026. The feasibility study carries a maiden ore reserve and a 31%+ IRR.
Our view
Constructive. Marimaca is what a copper major buys when it wants tonnes in 2029 rather than 2035 — northern Chile, cathode product, capex inside a single balance sheet's tolerance. The ASX dual listing was not a vanity exercise; it puts the register in front of the same super funds Glencore is courting. What we'd watch: the Q4 funding announcement. A strategic partner taking project-level equity is the bullish outcome; a straight equity top-up is the one that caps the re-rate.
Arizona Sonoran Copper — The Tariff-Proof OneTSX: ASCU
Cactus, in Pinal County, Arizona, produces copper cathode on US soil. In a market where the entire price signal is being distorted by import tariffs, that is not a small detail. The October 2025 PFS put average output at 103,000t of cathode annually across the first ten years at a capital intensity of US$10,894/t and an NPV:CAPEX ratio of 2.4:1. DFS and detailed engineering are due 2H 2026, with FID flagged as early as Q4 2026.
Our view
The highest-conviction idea here. Capital intensity near US$11,000/t is genuinely top-decile — most greenfield sulphide projects are double that — and a domestic cathode producer is the cleanest hedge against a US refined-copper tariff that is currently framed as 15% in 2027 stepping to 30% in 2028. If tariffs land, Cactus wins on realised price. If they don't, Cactus still works. Asymmetry.
Hot Chili — Cheapest Optionality, Most Moving PartsASX: HCHTSXV: HCH
At roughly A$327m, Hot Chili is the most leveraged name on the list. Costa Fuego in Chile's Atacama already carries scale; La Verde has changed the shape of it, with the widest hole to date returning 725m at 0.42% CuEq from 18m and a high-grade core now traced to 800m. Management commenced a significant revision of the 2025 PFS in May to fold La Verde in and assess a large open pit at Cortadera, funded by an A$40m placement in February.
Our view
Constructive with eyes open. Two things must go right — a maiden La Verde resource that justifies re-cutting the study, and Huasco Water, where the second maritime desalination licence has slipped on a change of Chilean government. Water is the binary. Solve it and Hot Chili owns infrastructure a bidder cannot replicate; leave it unsolved and Costa Fuego stays a study.
Caravel Minerals — Big, Close to Perth, and Low GradeASX: CVV
Caravel reported an updated ore reserve of 597Mt at 0.24% Cu for 1.42Mt contained on 19 June 2026, against a resource of 3.03Mt contained copper — Australia's largest undeveloped copper deposit, 150km from Perth, with a mine life beyond 28 years.
Our view
The honest bull case and the honest bear case are the same number. 0.24% Cu is thin, and thin grade means the project lives or dies on strip, throughput and power cost — which is precisely what the remaining DFS workstreams will tell us. But a 1.4Mt reserve in the Wheatbelt is a strategic asset at US$6/lb copper in a way it simply was not at US$3.85/lb. What we'd watch: the completed DFS and, more importantly, capital intensity per tonne. Anything under US$15,000/t makes this financeable.
Faraday Copper — Funded, Lundin-Backed, Still EarlyTSXV: FDY
Copper Creek, 70km north of Tucson. Phase IV drilling put thirteen holes into mineralisation generally within 40m of surface — 36.0m at 0.81% Cu at Copper Giant, 347.4m at 0.26% Cu at Marsha — supporting a heap-leachable oxide story on top of the sulphide resource. The company raised C$99.7m and paused drilling on 20 June pending the San Manuel acquisition, resuming in the fall.
Our view
The earliest-stage name we'd own. It is pre-DFS and the last full economics date to the May 2023 PEA, so this is exploration risk, not construction risk. But it is funded through the cycle, Arizona-located, and Lundin Group-associated — which historically has meant the exit is arranged before the market notices. Buy the San Manuel close, not the drill hole.
Coda Minerals — Watchlist, Not PortfolioASX: COD
Elizabeth Creek in South Australia holds over 1Mt contained copper equivalent, and Coda has cleared a real regulatory hurdle with the state gazetting its Scoping Report and setting project-specific Terms of Reference for mining lease approvals. It closed an oversubscribed A$6.7m placement and ended June with A$10.77m cash.
Our view
We like the rock and we do not like the calendar. PFS guidance has drifted from "during 2026" to Q1 2027. A slipping study at a microcap in a hot commodity tape means dilution before catalyst. Watchlist. Revisit on a dated PFS.
What We Would Not Pay For
We are constructive on copper equities. We are not constructive on copper arbitrage equities. A meaningful slice of the current move is US stockpiling ahead of a tariff decision — Goldman's own house view is that record prices aren't forecast to hold, and a definitive refined-copper ruling should end the hoarding and let the price ease. Anything whose earnings depend on the COMEX–LME spread rather than on tonnes in the ground is a trade with an expiry date on it, and the expiry date is public. Same warning applies to pre-resource explorers that have re-rated on a tariff headline and a tenement map. Own the shelf, not the spread.
Data Sources
Investing News Network; Bloomberg; CNBC Africa (DRC export ban, 29 June 2026); MINING.COM (El Teniente); Green Stocks Research and Investing News (copper M&A); Canadian Mining Journal (Glencore ASX listing reports); company announcements and studies for Marimaca Copper, Arizona Sonoran Copper, Hot Chili, Caravel Minerals, Faraday Copper and Coda Minerals (2025–August 2026); White & Case (Section 232 copper tariff); Goldman Sachs Insights; ICSG (historical market balance). Price charts redrawn by Cashu Research.
Notes and Limitations
Live intraday market capitalisations for Arizona Sonoran and Faraday Copper are fluctuating and not independently confirmed. Glencore's ASX secondary listing timing is press-reported, not company-confirmed. An "AIC Mines takeover" reference appearing in some third-party ASX copper commentary could not be substantiated and is excluded from this piece. Commodity price forecasts and study economics referenced above are the issuers' or third parties' estimates, not ours, and remain subject to change. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
US persons: several names discussed are quoted on OTC markets or foreign exchanges and are not registered under the US Securities Exchange Act. This material is not an offer or solicitation in the United States and is not directed at US persons.
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